The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

Who Should Read This Book and Why

• CIOs and senior leadership teams needing to understand the profound risks and opportunities of emerging AI and biotechnology
• Strategic decision-makers responsible for technology governance and risk management in organizations navigating rapid technological change

Summary

"The Coming Wave" is an urgent warning about the unprecedented risks that AI and other fast-developing technologies pose to global order, and how we might contain them while we have the chance.

Written by Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind and current CEO of Microsoft AI, the book explores how we are approaching a critical threshold in human history.

Suleyman argues that in the coming decade, we will live surrounded by AIs that organize our lives, operate businesses, and run government services, alongside other technologies like DNA printers and quantum computers.

These technologies will generate enormous wealth while potentially weakening societies and challenging traditional government structures.

The book establishes "the containment problem"—the task of maintaining control over powerful technologies—as the essential challenge of our age, and offers a roadmap for navigating between catastrophe and dystopia.

Key Learning Points

The Nature of Technological Waves

• Technologies naturally diffuse widely and become cheaper over time
• Each technological wave brings profound societal transformations
• Today's AI and synthetic biology represent the "coming wave" of unprecedented power and risk

The Containment Problem

• Technology's makers quickly lose control over their inventions once they're released into the world
• As technologies become more powerful, their unintended consequences escalate in parallel
• Containment refers to our ability to monitor, control, and potentially close down technologies
• Without effective containment measures, we risk both catastrophic outcomes and dystopian surveillance

Key Challenges of AI and Biotechnology

• AI systems are becoming increasingly capable of performing tasks previously possible only for humans
• Synthetic biology offers both medical breakthroughs and unprecedented biosecurity risks
• These technologies escalate rapidly due to commercial pressures and falling costs
• Traditional governance structures are unprepared for the scale and speed of coming changes

Proposed Containment Strategies

• Technical safety measures that limit AI capabilities
• Establishing chokepoints to regulate development
• Creating international governance frameworks
• Using auditing systems to ensure transparency and compliance
• Physical containment strategies (like air gaps) to limit connectivity
• Increased investment in safety research and development

Four Parts of the Book

1. Homo Technologicus: Explores humanity's relationship with technology
2. The Next Wave: Details the coming technological revolution
3. States of Failure: Examines how current governments are unprepared for these changes
4. Through the Wave: Proposes solutions for navigating these challenges successfully

By the End of This Book You Will...

1. Understand the historical patterns of technological development and how they apply to AI and biotechnology
2. Recognize the unprecedented risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems and synthetic biology
3. Appreciate why traditional governance structures are failing to address these challenges
4. Understand the containment problem as the essential challenge of our age
5. Be familiar with potential strategies for maintaining control over powerful technologies
6. Recognize the dilemma between unprecedented harms and overbearing surveillance
7. Have a framework for thinking about how societies can navigate the narrow path to a successful technological future
8. Be equipped to participate in discussions about technology governance and policy